Strava continues its flurry of updates—yes, it feels like a weekly release at this point—with the launch of a new feature under its Athlete Intelligence platform: Performance Predictions.
This one is aimed squarely at runners, offering finish time forecasts for popular race distances, including 5K, 10K, half marathon, and marathon. The predictions are generated using your recent training data, pacing trends, and historical performance. So, the more consistent and detailed your Strava uploads, the better the algorithm can guess how fast you’ll cross the finish line.
If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Garmin and other fitness platforms have long offered their own versions of this feature, although they often differ in their opinions on how you will perform on race day.
Compared to those other, sometimes optimistic estimates, Strava’s projections appear to be about in line with my expectations (and recent race times). My marathon prediction was surprisingly on the money—less Boston qualifier fantasy, more ‘yeah, more training required’.
That said, there’s a caveat: this isn’t available to free users. The feature is locked behind Strava’s subscription paywall; part of a broader push to justify its monthly fee. Whether Strava’s paid tier and this new feature are worth it depends on how much you trust an algorithm to tell you what you might already suspect.
Still, for serious runners—particularly those already well into their training cycles—this could be a valuable tool. Whether it actually helps you train smarter or just gives you more numbers to obsess over remains to be seen. One thing’s for sure: Strava’s not slowing down on these updates.
