Sony could sell as many as 1.4 million PlayStation VR headsets between October 13 and the end of 2016. That's according to the latest IHS Markit report which predicts Sony's first VR headset, a $399 PS4 accessory, will outsell the PC-based Oculus Rift and HTC Vive.
That's even building in the supply constraints we've already seen from Sony - running low on stock for Amazon, for example. The fact is Sony is going it alone in the 'mid range' with this price and set up so it has no previous product to base its sales estimates on.
Doing some crude calculations of our own, even excluding bundles, 1.4 million sales would mean at least $559 million in revenue for Sony from VR hardware.
Read this: Our Sony PlayStation VR review
OK so 1.4 million isn't much compared to say, the 53 million PS4 consoles it's sold in the past few years - it's not even 5%. But this is a new area of technology and many non PC gamers are yet to try out a VR headset. And you've got to admit it makes a superb Christmas present, as does the Samsung Gear VR on the lower end, so we expect most of those sales to be stacked between pre-orders and Xmas gifts.
Don't count out Daydream
IHS Markit also predicts that the PlayStation VR will generate $134 million on VR entertainment - games, apps and experiences - in 2016.
We've heard before that this is where the real money could be outside the small number of players building hardware. And it may yet prove to be so with upcoming headsets including Google's own $79 Daydream View. One of the plus points for PS VR is that there's a range of games from $50 multiplayer space games to sub $10 titles and free apps.
The latest sales estimates haven't budged much since early 2016. In March Sales Monitor predicted 1.6 million PS VR sales for the year and said this would give Sony 64% market share.
Elsewhere in this IHS Markit report, analysts predict Daydream View will be more popular than the Gear VR by 2019 and that spending on headsets will rise from $1.9 billion this year to $7.9 billion in 2020.
If you own a PS4, are you thinking about buying a PlayStation VR? If not, why not? Let us know in the comments.