Study uses heart data and AI to predict AFib onset 30 minutes before it happens

A new study has combined AI with the heart data accessible from wearables to help predict the onset of cardiac arrhythmia around 30 minutes before its onset.

While smartwatches have long been able to detect signs of atrial fibrillation (AFib) by analyzing user data, this is still only possible via on-the-spot ECG readings and periodic background heart checks.

As shown by researchers at the University of Luxembourg, however, stretching the typical timeframe for training AFib detection models can lead to far more useful outcomes.

The AI model - coined WARN (Warning of Atrial FibRillatioN) by the team - was tested by using 24-hour recordings from 350 patients at the Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, with early detection signs spotted at an average of 30 minutes before the beginning of atrial fibrillation and achieving 83% accuracy. 

Without outliers in the study, this average time extended to 40 minutes per subject, with researchers indicating that WARN is the first model to provide a heads-up this far before an episode occurs. 

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As detailed in the study notes, this is all achieved using the RR interval data - effectively the changes in milliseconds in the intervals between successive heartbeats - that's already common to smartwatches and fitness trackers.

"Another interesting aspect is that our model has a high performance using only R-to-R intervals, basically just heart rate data, that can be acquired from easy-to-wear and affordable pulse signal recorders such as smartwatches," says Dr Marino Gavidia, first author of the publication.

"These devices can be used by patients on a daily basis, so our results open possibilities for the development of real-time monitoring and early warnings from comfortable wearable devices," says Dr Arthur Montanari, also involved with the project.

Even though the study has demonstrated a positive correlation between broadening data for improved deep learning, however, it's always difficult to know when these findings will be integrated into a consumer device.

For now, at least, it's a positive step toward improved early AFib prediction - and one that should pave the way for researchers to refine the model for use in wearable devices in the near future.